The demand for a higher degree of autonomy in Okinawa is currently shared by a wide spectrum of political forces. Liberals and anti-military groups are the natural base for such demands. However, the conservatives who are affiliated with the LDP-led national government also recognize the necessity of more autonomous decision-making power for Okinawa. In particular, the decision process of the construction of the new military base under the QDR since October 2005, which completely ignored and overturned the position of the Okinawa governor, has made it clearer. Even a conservative governor backed by the LDP does not exert any influence over a crucial military policy that greatly affects Okinawa's future.
Tokyo's plan to consolidate existing prefectural governments into fewer and larger regional governments also stirred up interests in Okinawa's status to some extent. There were concerns that Okinawa might have been absorbed by Kyushu, eliminating a separate Okinawan government. The latest government plan erases this concern by giving Okinawa a separate regional status. However, the actual design of this arrangement is far from settled and Okinawa's autonomy may be still limited greatly.
On the other hand, there is a widely accepted agreement that independence is not a realistic and feasible future for Okinawa. If Okinawa stays in the Japanese yen economy, it simply can not compete with economies with lower labor costs and production costs in manufacturing or agriculture. In Okinawa such costs are prohibitively high in comparison with its Asian neighbors. Therefore, Okinawa's industrial prospect is limited under current arrangement. However, if Okinawa goes independent and adopts its own currency, its exchange rate would be too disadvantageous to import all the necessary material and resources; Okinawa can not sustain a completely independent economy.
Although economic reality eliminates a scenario of complete independence, there is still a possibility of a more autonomous status for Okinawa within the framework of the Japanese state. Tokyo's regional government reorganization plan (DOSHU-SEI) acknowledges Okinawa's unique and distinctive history and cultural heritage and its basis to be considered a special region. Geography alone makes it natural for Okinawa to have the authority to make its own decisions.
In addition, two current political developments make it more urgent for Okinawa to develop an autonomous region plan. The first is Japan's financial crisis. Okinawa has become dependent on governmental subsidies. Although the share of direct military expenditures in Okinawa economy has declined during the past thirty years, other government expenditures, especially in public works, still account for a large portion of the Okinawa economy. However, it is not possible for Okinawa to count on this source. The decision has already been made that such government subsidies will be cut drastically. Money from Tokyo will not come at the existing rates. Okinawa has to clean up its own financial house or Tokyo will seize control of the regional administration. In order to avoid such a glum financial and political future, Okinawa needs to develop a stronger autonomous government, so that it can create its own plans and make its own efforts to survive the rough times ahead for all local governments.
The second is Japan's deteriorating relations with Asian neighbors and the transformation of the US military forces in Okinawa. If current trends continue, the military tension in the vicinity of Okinawa will be built up so much that potential military confrontation will be unavoidable. Such a situation will be devastating to Okinawa's economy. Even a minor military skirmish will kill Okinawa's tourism industry. Also the planned US Marines base in Nago city will serve as a forward base for attacking foreign territories. Its function is different from USMC Futenma Air Station, whose main function is training, or Kadena Air Force base, which works to keep strategic military balance and functions as a means of military deterrent. Okinawa will be forced to be integrated more closely into the US “War on Terrorism", when its credibility has been free falling.
There are growing conservative forces in Japan that call for strengthening Japan's own military and eliminating US military presence. This policy will not serve Okinawa well, either, because Japan's military forces alone make Okinawa more hostile toward China and Korea. Ironically, the US military presence in Okinawa works to a certain extent as a stabilizing force in the region. The best case scenario is to reduce US and Japanese military presence in Okinawa gradually, while building more cooperative relations with Asian neighbors. Otherwise, Okinawa will have to brace itself for serious crises in the near future.
For Okinawa to cope with these troublesome situations, it is essential for it to be more autonomous and be able to steer its own course. Okinawa cannot continue to be a pawn of Tokyo or the US, and a more autonomous Okinawa will help Japan build better, more stable relations with its Asian neighbors.
